Poll Squabbles

I didn't plan on addressing the college football poll topic this year, but with the recent cheeseburger bickering from Charlie Weis and the constant 'the media hates us' whining from ND fans, I could no longer resist.

Look college football fans (this includes you, too, Domers), once and for all, the polls are not an objective science and they consist of multiples flaws that can only be matched by a John L. Smith led team. The basic principle that an extraordinary amount fans fail to comprehend as they watch their team experience the roller coaster ranking ride year in and year out, is that when you start the season off with a preseason poll, your team is open for constant ranking corrections.

Any system that ranks its outputs (teams in this case), before objective analysis (the playing of games), takes place, is bound to have serious miscalculations.

For argument sake, let's take two teams to fit our example - Michigan & Notre Dame. The Irish went into the 2006 season with a # 2 ranking and have done little to justify that ranking. Meanwhile, Michigan came into the 2006 season with a #14 and as earned its way to a most recent #2 rank.

The big thing Irish fans don't realize is just because they lost in week 3 of season, it does not mean the ranking correction takes place following that game and as long as Notre Dame wins from that point on it has the 'right' to that spot or higher in the polls.

Its quite the opposite. Look at it this way. Imagine each college football week is similar to public corporations posting quarterly earnings. Analysts expect an EPS (earning per share) of x and if the company surprises Wall Street in either direction, the stock could very well experience some correction.

It is not different in college football. Each week analysts learn a little more about your team, as well as the teams chasing or that are ahead of your team. And each week these analysts must soak in what they saw and re-distribute the rankings based on the current market conditions.

It is not the fault of the analysts that following Michigan's domination of Notre Dame that the Irish barely escaped a Michigan State team, which is now laughable in the market landscape that voters must use as their guide when ranking teams each week. It is also not the fault of the analysts that the Irish have not played a worthy opponent since the Michigan debacle and will not do so until they butt heads with USC later this year. During this time, other teams are able to show their stuff against more formidable foes, causing fluctuations in the rankings.

Notre Dame fans will suggest that its not fair for a team with a 'Bye' week to jump the Irish after a last second win against UCLA. But keep in mind, when voters put a team at a particular ranking, they set an expectation for that team. I highly doubt that the expectation they put on Notre Dame's ranking prior to the UCLA was for the Irish to pull out a last second win at home.

Thus, a market correction followed that knocked Notre Dame down in some polls.

It really is simple logic for those fans who are not obsessed with the 'media against us' theory.

Until college football gets it right and rids the foolish preseason polls, which set expectations before any precedent is provided, we can look forward to similar occurrences each year. At worse, if college football must have these ridiculous preseason polls that set fans into a frenzy when their team is rewarded or slighted by a ranking, then at least provide us a playoff so the matter can be settled on the field.

Until then fans, accept the crazy logic and operation, which is what college football is today. And be consistent with your ranking complaints.

I sure didn't see many Notre Dame fans, nor Charlie for that matter, complain when the Irish were ranked #2 to start the season for no applicable reason, at all. I mean, in two years time, Notre Dame has failed to beat a Top 25 team, yet they are still ranked in the Top 10.

Not that's something to squabble about.

DP

Countdown to the Showdown

One year ago at this time, Michigan was coming off a thrilling win vs. Penn State and going into a crucial battle with the Hawkeyes, similar to this week's events. But other than the games place on the schedule, the 2006 vs. 2005 season comparison, up to this point, are about as bipolar as the Yankees and Tigers chance to win the 2006 World Series.

Man, how things can change in one short season.

No longer are the Wolverines creeping into each game hoping for a victory to salvage a dismal season. Rather, Big Blue is grasping each game like it is its last and breaking the opposition over its thick, tradition laden, legs. The mojo, if you will, in Wolverine football is back.

Ask many a Michigan fan and they will most likely tell you that the trip to Happy Valley this year was one they feared. I mean, how many years can Penn State lose to Michigan? Seven in a row is long enough, right? The Penn State fans almost deemed it their duty to expel its football team from this horrendous streak. They would come out in massive numbers, wearing nothing but white, and make as much noise as humanly possible to disrupt the Wolverines.

And they did this all in vain.

Michigan once again demoralized Penn State's dream of conquering the Wolverines. Not only did Michigan silence 110,000+ rabid Nittany Lion fans, but they did it in a dominating fashion by physically beating Penn State into submission. Don't let the 17-10 score fool you. This game was never in doubt and it was more of what Michigan did wrong at points in the game than what Penn State did right.

They could've pitched a shut out with a little more focus.

Nonetheless, the path has been cleared. The Big Ten, in all logical probability, will be represented in this year's BCS Title game. The question is who will it be: Michigan or Ohio State.
The hype has begun even though both teams have 4 opponents before the big one. But the dominance they have displayed, to date, has been so great that the remaining foes only appear to earth that is about to have a date with a bulldozer clearing the path for a new road. A hiccup seems unlikely and virtually impossible, at this point.

Can this blood thirsty rivalry handle nearly one month of anticipation? How high will analysts thrust this game into the college football stratosphere? The best and most anticipated game, ever?

There is still work to be done on both sides. But that does not stop fans from beginning the countdown, analysis, and bickering back and forth as to which team will be taking the field in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl.

Ohio State feels its their right of passage. After all, they are the self proclaimed owners of the Fiesta Bowl.

Michigan feels its their destiny and looks to take a page out of that other Blue team still working its magic in downtown Detroit.

The majority of the experts had Ohio State penciled in for this year's National Championship game back during the preseason. Although, it should be pointed out, most of those same experts had the Yankees in the World Series.

Let the countdown begin.

DP

Half Way Home

After a very business like thumping of Michigan State, the Wolverines find themselves unblemished at the midway point of the season. The score did not do justice to just how bad Michigan man handled the Spartans, who were over matched and bullied all over the field. A MSU offense, which boasted a Nationally Top 10 rushing attack averaging 220 yds/game going in Saturday's match-up, mustered a measly 60 yards. I guess Caulcrick will need to rethink his view on the 'unimpressive' Michigan defensive line that he called out leading up to the game. Undoubtedly, his words fired up the 'D', which contained him to a miniscule 29 yards on 14 attempts.

Brandon Minor of Michigan out gained the boisterous Caulcrick on only 3 carries!

Michigan State had its share of, well, Michigan State moments, which included offsides, missed FG, offsides, late hit, offsides, running into the kicker, and oh, did I mention offsides?

Even if Michigan wasn't prepared to win this one, MSU undoubtedly was planning to hand the Wolverines a victory, regardless, with their sloppy play.

Henne was his usual efficient self, only passing the ball 17 times and completing 11 for 140 yards and 3 TD's. Manningham showed up for his weekly, almost automatic, two deep TD's to go along with Arrington's acrobatic, yet controversial, TD. Mike Hart motored for 122 yards and even left the game early (ankle) to allow Kevin Grady and Brandon Minor to make their presence felt. And did they ever by amassing a combined 92 yards on 15 carries, including an impressive 40 yard scamper by the true freshman (Minor).

The defense held the high powered Spartan attack to a respectable 312 yards of total offense. Although, the sacks have dangerously declined over the last two weeks (a combined 1), the defense once again made running the ball an insurmountable chore for the Spartans who were virtually forced to a strictly pass offense to move the ball with any type of consistency. The defense also came through with two interceptions, although the 1st one would've been wiser to hit the turf as the Spartans faced 4th down.

You could sense early on in this game that Sparty simply had no answer on how to shove the ball down Michigan's throat. Due to this, Michigan jumped on them early, all the way to a 24-0 lead before MSU displayed some life in producing 2 late scores (one set-up by the poor interception decision of Adams).

Needless to say, the defense will be relied heavily in the next two week's, as we conclude this 6 game gauntlet, to pull the Wolverins through unscathed.

Key defensive statistics:

1. 9 plays of negative or no gain out of 61 - 14.8% (61 out of 367 for the year - 16.6%)
2. 1 sack (18 for the year)
3. 2 turnovers to make it 13 for the year

Red Zone Efficiency

Offense

1. 2 trips into Red Zone vs. MSU, resulting in 1 TD & 1 FG (71.4% scoring efficiency)
2. For the year, 23 trips for 12 TD's, 7 FG's, and 2 turnovers (64.6% scoring efficiency)

Defense

1. 3 MSU trips into the Red Zone resulting in 2 TD's (61.9% scoring efficiency)
2. For the year, only 10 opposing trips into Red Zone for 5 TD's, 2 FG's, and 2 turnovers (57.1% scoring efficiency)

This week, against Penn State, will prove the Wolvies biggest test, yet. Beaver Stadium will be rocking and the Nittany Lions are looking to avenge their unimaginable 7 game losing streak against Michigan. As if the hype machine isn't enough for this game, it is to be played under the Pennsylvania lights. The Wolverines will have to do it without their most feared weapon, Mario Manningham, due to a knee injury.

The weight of this game will fall on the shoulders of Ron English and his defense to lead the way for Big Blue. The offensive attack will look to be methodical and control the clock with hopes of leaving Happy Valley, well happy.

A true test of this team's character will be unveiled on Saturday night. The Wolverine faithful are hoping 6 turns to 7 and 7 turns to 8 in a match-up that will bring the Wolverines one step closer to the eagerly anticipated slugfest.

But for now, one game and streak at a time.

Quick Slants

Well, the Auburn defense, which looked exposed against South Carolina confirmed our suspicion on Saturday afternoon against Arkansas as the Razorbacks ran all over them. This week is a showdown with Florida, which Michigan fans now find themselves rooting for the Tigers for BCS positioning.

USC continued its shaky play, bareley getting by an average Washington squad, yet, the computers still love the Trojans in the polls with 4 of them used for BCS rankings having them ranked #1.

Here is my Top 10:

1. Ohio State - Here until they slip
2. Michigan - No team in the Nation has been more consistent week in and week out
3. Florida - Will jump to #2 if they get by Auburn on the road
4. USC - Don't see this team getting through the season undefeated
5. Tennessee - If they would've held on vs. Florida they would be sitting pretty at #2
6. Cal - Look for the Bears to give USC everything they can handle
7. West Virginia - Still question the legitimacy of this team
8. Texas - Jury still out on the Longhorns, but looked solid vs. Oklahoma
9. Auburn - Will maintain its Top 10 status with a big win vs. the Gators this week
10. Notre Dame - They don't play anybody until the season finally - a Top 10 default, for now

DP

Time Flies When You're Having Fun

So we are one game away from reaching the mid-point of the college football season. My, where has it gone already? Before you know it we'll be hearing ESPN's bowl jingle,'It's the Most Wonderful Time of the Year'.

Let's take quick look at the Minny game before moving on to more important matters.

Henne and the offense dominated in this match-up no matter what the doubters suggest. Michigan rolled up over 500 yards of offense, including 234 on the ground. Henne was, once again, lethal with his deep attack while hooking up with Arrington (2) and Mannigham for TD's. The downside of the offense and probably the reason for all the post game fuss were 3 key plays:

1. Henne missing a streaking Mannigham for an apparent TD
2. Henne misses a wide-open Massey on an out inside the 15
3. Failed Red Zone conversion inside the 5 yard line

The above could've produced another 13 to 21 points, not too mention securing the necessary breathing room required by Michigan faithful needed for a stamp of approval win.

Theatrics aside, the Michigan offense appears to be blossoming each week with new foliage, as roles are expanded and new weapons are found. This week, insert Adrian Arrington.

With two targets to catch Henne's missiles, coupled with the headache Hart presents to opposing defenses, the offense could become a well-oiled machine by years end.

Defensively, the Wolverines did their job. An obvious point of concern was the loss of Morgan Trent and his coverage abilities along with his sure tackling against the run. He should be back for the MSU game, which will allow English to get back into attack mode by trusting his corners one on one.

For the first time this season, the defense looked uninspired at times and failed to register a sack. It's sure nice to see a lackluster defense only give up 323 yards of offense and limit one of the most potent rushing attacks in the Nation to one half of their normal output. The inability to abuse Capito was mainly due to his quick drops. The lack of lost yardage on sacks as well as not forcing a turnover did not bode well in terms of highlight video additions. However, I was surprised to see that Michigan held Minny to 7 plays of no gain or negative yardage, which all came against run (24 attempts).

For the year, the attacking Michigan defense has compiled the following:

1. 17 sacks
2. 35 plays of no gain or negative yardage (17% of oppositions offensive plays)
3. 11 forced turnovers (2 on special teams)

They also give up a mere 36.4 yards per game on the ground.

Updated 2006 Red Zone Efficiency:

Offense

1. 4 trips vs. Minny resulting in 2 TD's - 14 of a possible 28 points
2. For the season, 21 trips resulting in 11 TD's and 6 FG's and 94 of a possible 147 points - 63.9%

Defense

1. 1 trip vs. Minny resulting in a turnover of downs
2. For the season, an amazing 7 trips for 3 TD's and 2 FG's - 55.1% point scored efficiency.

Quick Slants

I was wrong about OSU and Iowa. I really believed Iowa had the horses to make a run this year. OSU man handled them at home in front of a National audience; therefore, I am off the Iowa bandwagon and realize without a major John L. Smith type breakdown, the Bucks are going into 11/18 undefeated. I projected 3 Big Ten losses for them and I'll take my lumps for my poor prognosis.

On that note, it is hard for me not to believe that the stars are beginning to align for the biggest regular season college football showdown that we've seen in quite some time. With each passing week it is easier for me to convince myself that both Michigan and Ohio State will be 11-0 leading up to the season finale. The Penn State game is still my biggest fear because at some point, the law of averages suggest Michigan may walk out of that game with a loss. However, the more I see Michigan's defense stiffen and the offense gel, I am optimistic of the Big Blue's chances of leaving leave Beaver Stadium with 7 game winning streak at hand.

We've also reached October 1st, which means I can start ranking teams on what they've accomplished rather than preseason hype. Here is my Top 10:

1. Ohio State - No doubt about it
2. Auburn - Like Irons a lot, although the 'D' was exposed against S. Carolina
3. Michigan - The train is rolling on both sides of the ball
4. Florida - Speed, speed, speed and some nice weapons to go along with that speed
5. USC - Enough talent to come out of the Pac 10 unscathed
6. LSU - Defense is the real deal, but offense is limited
7. West Virginia - 2005 carryover ranking. Show me something or I'll drop you like a hot iron
8. Texas - We will find out this weekend against OU if Texas is Top 10 legit
9. Louisville - Will get to prove Top 10 legitimacy in a few weeks vs. WV
10. Notre Dame - Should be Oklahoma's spot, but Oregon cheated

On we roll to hate, I mean State weak. The emotions always get high during this match-up and should provide decent Saturday late afternoon entertainment....at least for one half.

Michigan rolls into Happy Valley......

DP

BCS Standings

A few interesting notes:

1. Michigan is ranked # 1 in 5 of the 6 computer polls
2. The gap between #2 and #3 and narrowed, significantly
3. 3 Big Ten teams in the Top 15

DP

(click to enlarge)