Michigan Preview (with Big Ten notes)

Another season is upon us Michigan fans and I cannot remember one, in recent memory, that is filled with so much anticipation sprinkled with apprehension, optimism laced with budding doubt, and pride seared with anguish.

Our Wolverines have not fared well against two of our fiercest rivals over the last several years. A long-time proud program is starting to endure chips in the armor. A win over Ohio State and Notre Dame are almost a MUST this season.

This fall the Wolverine's will put on the field the best combination of talent and experience the Big Ten has to offer in 2006. The question is, what will they do with it?

We've heard this song and dance before, that this year's squad is displaying something special in camp. And in each of the recent years, we were disappointed with the unjust hype and lack of fire that the Wolverines displayed.

Will 2006 be different? I think so.

On offense, if healthy, Michigan is loaded from skill positions to the offensive line. Inserting a healthy Jake Long on Henne's blind side should provide Henne better pocket presence due to the confidence in Long to protect him. A healthy OL will also be crucial in jump starting the running game, which will also allow Henne to be more productive. Look for healthy doses of Hart and Grady, along with Carlos Brown as a change of pace back, similar to Bass of 2005. The wideout position has depth, talent, and will provide Michigan with deep threats as well as playmakers. The tight end position is, once again, a formidable unit and should see an increased role with Debord back as Offensive Coordinator.

The defense will come out with a new fire under Ron English. Back to fundamentals is the key for this unit. They possess skill, speed, and power, which should result in not being intimidated by any offense in the Big Ten, although they will be tested. The key to the 'D' is the front four. If English is able to apply pressure on opposing QB's with the talented Woodley and Branch, it will set the defense up for a solid season. The linebacker core has depth and athleticism. Look for Crable to provide an immediate impact. The secondary, although not overly talented, will be dependable led by lockdown corner, Leon Hall.

Michigan will be able to substitute 2 deep in nearly every position on 'D' without missing a beat. If the fundamentals are there, this will be a critical component in wearing teams down over the course of the game.

Special teams at Michigan should be second to none in the Big Ten, with the dependable Rivas kicking FG's, Ross Ryan creating field position in the punting game, and Steve Breaston posing a legitimate breakaway threat in returning kicks and punts.

The coaching staff put emphasis on losing weight, adding speed, and getting fit. We will see early on if this will pay dividends for the 2006 Wolverines.

My key area for this year's team is Red Zone efficiency on both offense and defense. Michigan had too many Red Zone turnovers in 2005 that cost them dearly. They also did not punch the ball into the end when in the Red Zone with high efficiency in 2005. Making a stand and holding the opposition to Red Zone FG's while scoring Red Zone TD's on offense will be a tell tale of this year's squad. The new attitude and coaching strategy should benefit this area.

Offensive Keys

1. Better pocket presence by Henne, which will be a direct result of better protection
2. Attack the middle of the field with passing game
3. 1st down and Red Zone efficiency
4. Mike Hart gaining 1,000 + yards on the ground

Defensive Keys

1. It starts and ends with the front four. Pressuring the QB and clogging the middle will turn an average secondary and above average linebacking core to exceptional
2. Not having to rely on the blitz to pressure QB's
3. Ability to stop or force teams to FG's in Red Zone
4. Intensity and fundamentals

In Big Ten play, I'm picking the Wolverines to go 7-1 with Penn State finally getting one against Blue. I expect huge road wins at Notre Dame to set the tone for the season as well as throwing the monkey off their back with a shocker in C-Bus.

Look for the Minny game to be a gut wrencher and the Iowa game to be a Nationally followed classic.

My Big Ten prediction is:

1. Michigan(7-1)
2. Iowa (7-1)
3. MSU (6-2)
4. OSU (5-3)
5. Wisconsin (5-3)
6. Penn St. (5-3)

I know OSU fans will call this homerism, but the transition of the 'D' in Columbus will experience growing pains and the Buckeyes will suffer a defeat at Iowa and a upset at East Lansing.

Iowa will be the most consistent and solid team in the Big Ten due to a favorable schedule and will contend for a BCS bid.

Penn State will come back to earth, yet still get a big win against Michigan.

My darkhouse is the Stanton led Michigan State Spartans. The offense will be deadly and the Spartans will finally end their lack of depth and finishing the season futility that has bit John L. in years past. A huge upset of OSU will be the momentum the Sparties need to finish the season strong.

Look for Purdue to be on the brink of a bounce back season and Wisconsin to, again, be solid in rounding up the Big Ten Bowl picture.

Minny will struggle with its running game and end its Bowl streak. The emotions at NU will not be enough to produce a solid season for 'green' head coach, Pat Fitzgerald. Ron Zook is still a year or two away from Illinois making an impact in the Big Ten and Indiana will once again struggle to win games.

A realistic approach to Michigan's season would most likely be winning 1 of 3 on the road against ND, PSU, and OSU and winning out the remainder of the schedule to finish at 10-2 and be BCS bound.

An optimistic view has this team 11-1 and contending for a National Championship in 2007.

Anything more than 2 losses in 2006 will most likely be treated as disastrous by Michigan fans. And yet another chip in the armor will be made, exposing parts of the program that haven't been in jeopardy at Michigan in decades.

Will they bring it?

My Big Ten head-to-head prediction grid (click to enlarge).

DP

The Biggest Holiday Nobody Talks About

You walk into your local market and swear you can read the faces of the men around you. Co-workers appear to have a twinkle in their eye and a hop in their step. At times, you'd venture off to predict it's the calm before the storm.

With anticipation and keen acknowledgement of your surroundings, it's time to pull out the 'to-do' list. Eagerly, over the last few weeks, you've instituted a schedule that will put you in free sailing when the long awaited date gradually nears. In fact, you even project 'honey do' items that have not currently made their way onto the 'list', but have high probability of reaching it in the short term. Nothing can be overlooked and no stone unturned. With abnormal desire and determination to complete the duties and tasks at hand, extra points are earned from the 'green' woman in your life. The veteran ones know exactly what you're up to.

Nonetheless, time is running short and one last scan of the house and its needs are mandatory. Only days, hours, minutes left.

Yes gentlemen, the upcoming weekend holds significance that can be justly equated to that of major holidays. No gifts are exchanged, nor are cards given. Consequently, the holiday weekend comes without much conversation and leaves with a sigh of built-up relief, but its magnitude is simply unquantifiable for most men. Upon us, gentlemen, is the day we've been awaiting since early January.

Upcoming is officially, 'the last weekend before the college football season begins'. The name doesn't make for catching greeting cards. It won't even fit on most calendars. But for millions of men across the country it represents a sense of freedom.

Kiss the wife and kids on the forehead. Spend some quality 'family time' with them this Saturday, as it will be their last for quite a while.

Whatever you do men, do NOT leave a chore undone as this can set your season into a downward spiral that can be difficult and costly to stop.

Pull out the tailgating gear and make sure it is in fine working order. Assure your jersey still fits. Collect the necessary pre-game CD's. Prepare your 'game watching area' and re-assure it is the most effective place to spend 14 hours a day for the next 12 Saturday's. Lastly, detail out your season tailgating menu and stock the house with the appropriate ingredients as well as beverages.

We are almost there, gentlemen. Another season is upon us. Some of us will enjoy the success of our respective teams while others go through a heartbreaking season. Most of us will undoubtedly shout obscenities at the television while neighbors ponder why we are calling our wives or children 'stupid, blind incompetent @-holes'. Our wives will need to 'husband proof' the home to avoid excessive damage for the upcoming season. And once again, a thorough schedule will need to be communicated to the wife on the best times to talk to us during the next 12 Saturday's.

Most relatives will comply to the rules of not scheduling family outings during the season, but have a contingency plan handy if needed.

Last but not least, enjoy yourself this year. Afterall, its only a game.

DP

Sporting News: Best Sports City

The Sporting News posted its annual 'Best Sports City' piece and to little surprise, Chicago came out on top with strong showings from both the Bears and White Sox. However, looking at the rankings made me curious as to how these cities stack up over time.

The Sporting News has been doing this survey since the mid-90's, but only through '98 is accessible online. The criteria was edited in 1996, so the only comparative year missing from this analysis is 1997.

A couple of things surprised, yet encouraged me:

• No shock that New York averaged the best ranking over the past 9 years
• For the lack of National notoriety Detroit gets as a sports town, they fared extremely well in the 9 year average ranking finishing 3rd best behind New York & Dallas
• The overrated exposure of Chicago sports has been validated with an average ranking that places 12th best behind cities such as: Miami, Denver, and Phoenix.

The three columns to the right highlight:

• Average 9 year ranking of each city (rank is sorted by this figure)
• Average 9 year ranking excluding high and low rank
• Delta between high and low rank for consistency purpose

Only Dallas, Detroit, and Philly have achieved the feat of not having a double digit ranking during this stretch. Chicago on the other hand, only has two years of single digit rankings, which happen to be bookends during this time span.

Click on chart to enlarge

DP