Michigan Preview (with Big Ten notes)

Another season is upon us Michigan fans and I cannot remember one, in recent memory, that is filled with so much anticipation sprinkled with apprehension, optimism laced with budding doubt, and pride seared with anguish.

Our Wolverines have not fared well against two of our fiercest rivals over the last several years. A long-time proud program is starting to endure chips in the armor. A win over Ohio State and Notre Dame are almost a MUST this season.

This fall the Wolverine's will put on the field the best combination of talent and experience the Big Ten has to offer in 2006. The question is, what will they do with it?

We've heard this song and dance before, that this year's squad is displaying something special in camp. And in each of the recent years, we were disappointed with the unjust hype and lack of fire that the Wolverines displayed.

Will 2006 be different? I think so.

On offense, if healthy, Michigan is loaded from skill positions to the offensive line. Inserting a healthy Jake Long on Henne's blind side should provide Henne better pocket presence due to the confidence in Long to protect him. A healthy OL will also be crucial in jump starting the running game, which will also allow Henne to be more productive. Look for healthy doses of Hart and Grady, along with Carlos Brown as a change of pace back, similar to Bass of 2005. The wideout position has depth, talent, and will provide Michigan with deep threats as well as playmakers. The tight end position is, once again, a formidable unit and should see an increased role with Debord back as Offensive Coordinator.

The defense will come out with a new fire under Ron English. Back to fundamentals is the key for this unit. They possess skill, speed, and power, which should result in not being intimidated by any offense in the Big Ten, although they will be tested. The key to the 'D' is the front four. If English is able to apply pressure on opposing QB's with the talented Woodley and Branch, it will set the defense up for a solid season. The linebacker core has depth and athleticism. Look for Crable to provide an immediate impact. The secondary, although not overly talented, will be dependable led by lockdown corner, Leon Hall.

Michigan will be able to substitute 2 deep in nearly every position on 'D' without missing a beat. If the fundamentals are there, this will be a critical component in wearing teams down over the course of the game.

Special teams at Michigan should be second to none in the Big Ten, with the dependable Rivas kicking FG's, Ross Ryan creating field position in the punting game, and Steve Breaston posing a legitimate breakaway threat in returning kicks and punts.

The coaching staff put emphasis on losing weight, adding speed, and getting fit. We will see early on if this will pay dividends for the 2006 Wolverines.

My key area for this year's team is Red Zone efficiency on both offense and defense. Michigan had too many Red Zone turnovers in 2005 that cost them dearly. They also did not punch the ball into the end when in the Red Zone with high efficiency in 2005. Making a stand and holding the opposition to Red Zone FG's while scoring Red Zone TD's on offense will be a tell tale of this year's squad. The new attitude and coaching strategy should benefit this area.

Offensive Keys

1. Better pocket presence by Henne, which will be a direct result of better protection
2. Attack the middle of the field with passing game
3. 1st down and Red Zone efficiency
4. Mike Hart gaining 1,000 + yards on the ground

Defensive Keys

1. It starts and ends with the front four. Pressuring the QB and clogging the middle will turn an average secondary and above average linebacking core to exceptional
2. Not having to rely on the blitz to pressure QB's
3. Ability to stop or force teams to FG's in Red Zone
4. Intensity and fundamentals

In Big Ten play, I'm picking the Wolverines to go 7-1 with Penn State finally getting one against Blue. I expect huge road wins at Notre Dame to set the tone for the season as well as throwing the monkey off their back with a shocker in C-Bus.

Look for the Minny game to be a gut wrencher and the Iowa game to be a Nationally followed classic.

My Big Ten prediction is:

1. Michigan(7-1)
2. Iowa (7-1)
3. MSU (6-2)
4. OSU (5-3)
5. Wisconsin (5-3)
6. Penn St. (5-3)

I know OSU fans will call this homerism, but the transition of the 'D' in Columbus will experience growing pains and the Buckeyes will suffer a defeat at Iowa and a upset at East Lansing.

Iowa will be the most consistent and solid team in the Big Ten due to a favorable schedule and will contend for a BCS bid.

Penn State will come back to earth, yet still get a big win against Michigan.

My darkhouse is the Stanton led Michigan State Spartans. The offense will be deadly and the Spartans will finally end their lack of depth and finishing the season futility that has bit John L. in years past. A huge upset of OSU will be the momentum the Sparties need to finish the season strong.

Look for Purdue to be on the brink of a bounce back season and Wisconsin to, again, be solid in rounding up the Big Ten Bowl picture.

Minny will struggle with its running game and end its Bowl streak. The emotions at NU will not be enough to produce a solid season for 'green' head coach, Pat Fitzgerald. Ron Zook is still a year or two away from Illinois making an impact in the Big Ten and Indiana will once again struggle to win games.

A realistic approach to Michigan's season would most likely be winning 1 of 3 on the road against ND, PSU, and OSU and winning out the remainder of the schedule to finish at 10-2 and be BCS bound.

An optimistic view has this team 11-1 and contending for a National Championship in 2007.

Anything more than 2 losses in 2006 will most likely be treated as disastrous by Michigan fans. And yet another chip in the armor will be made, exposing parts of the program that haven't been in jeopardy at Michigan in decades.

Will they bring it?

My Big Ten head-to-head prediction grid (click to enlarge).

DP